Risk-Neutral Probabilities


Risk-Neutral Probabilities
Probabilities of future outcomes adjusted for risk, which are then used to compute expected asset values. The benefit of this risk-neutral pricing approach is that the once the risk-neutral probabilities are calculated, they can be used to price every asset based on its expected payoff. These theoretical risk-neutral probabilities differ from actual real world probabilities; if the latter were used, expected values of each security would need to be adjusted for its individual risk profile.

A key assumption in computing risk-neutral probabilities is the absence of arbitrage. The concept of risk-neutral probabilities is widely used in pricing derivatives.


Investment dictionary. . 2012.